TY  - JOUR
AU  - Garbárová, Miriam
AU  - Fabuš, Juraj
AU  - Kremeňová, Iveta
AU  - Majerčáková, Margita
TI  - Bitcoin Event Windows and Ecosystem Indicators, 2012–2024: Market, Trust, Protocol, and Institutional Milestones
PY  - 2026
JO  - FinTech
VL  - 5
IS  - 3
SP  - 74
PB  - MDPI
DO  - 10.3390/fintech5030074
UR  - https://www.mdpi.com/2674-1032/5/3/74
AB  - Bitcoin is often narrated through price cycles, yet major dated events affect different layers of the ecosystem. This study analyzes 21 Bitcoin-related events between 2012 and 2024 using a first-public-information dating rule, a mechanism-based event taxonomy, and daily Coin Metrics data. Price-defined milestones are retained as historical markers but excluded from mechanism-level comparisons. Baseline cumulative abnormal log returns are estimated with a constant-mean model over days −120 to −21 and reported for [−1,+1], [−3,+3], and [−7,+7] windows. The analysis adds standardized CARs, Benjamini–Hochberg multiplicity checks, date-sensitivity tests, estimation-window sensitivity, a market model using a capitalization-weighted Bitcoin-excluded crypto proxy, a crypto-plus-macro model using S&P 500 and broad U.S. dollar-index returns, and non-price ecosystem indicators. In the clean mechanism sample, trust shocks have the most negative median raw CARs (−16.8, −22.3, and −21.6 log-return percentage points across the three windows); exact trust-versus-other tests are significant for CAR3 and CAR7 (p = 0.002) but not for CAR15 (p = 0.082). Standardized tests show the same short-window pattern (p = 0.009 and p = 0.006). No individual event-level empirical p-value survives a 5% Benjamini–Hochberg correction, and market-model controls attenuate several effects, so the findings are interpreted descriptively rather than causally. On-chain indicators show that trust shocks coincide with elevated exchange flows and spot volume, while active-address and hash-rate measures do not indicate protocol-layer collapse. The study contributes a transparent framework that separates market reaction, service-layer stress, protocol resilience, and institutional significance.
ER  -